In
this study a method of retrieving optimum information of typhoon tracks in a
multimodel ensemble of forecasts is explored.
By
treating the latitudes and longitudes of typhoon centers as components of
two-dimensional track vectors and using the full ensemble mean as a first
guess, it is shown that such a two-dimensional approach for the typhoon track
forecast can be formulated as a multivariate optimization problem.
Experiments
with five nonhydrostatic primitive equation models during the 2004-08 typhoon
seasons in the western North Pacific basin show some noticeable improvements in
the forecasts of typhoon tracks in terms of the forecast errors and track
smoothness with this multivariate approach.
The
advantages of the multivariate optimization approach are its portability and
simplicity, which could make it easily adaptable to any operational typhoon
forecast center that synthesizes typhoon track forecast products from different
sources.
Title:
| Two-Dimensional Retrieval of Typhoon Tracks from an Ensemble of Multimodel Outputs | |
| Authors: | Tran, Tan Tien Cong Thanh Hoang, Thanh Van |
| Keywords: | WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION PART I MODEL FORECASTS PARAMETERIZATION ATLANTIC PREDICTION GUIDANCE SYSTEM |
| Issue Date: | 2012 |
| Publisher: | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 45 BEACON ST, BOSTON, MA 02108-3693 USA |
| Citation: | ISIKNOWLEDGE |
| Abstract: | In this study a method of retrieving optimum information of typhoon tracks in a multimodel ensemble of forecasts is explored. By treating the latitudes and longitudes of typhoon centers as components of two-dimensional track vectors and using the full ensemble mean as a first guess, it is shown that such a two-dimensional approach for the typhoon track forecast can be formulated as a multivariate optimization problem. Experiments with five nonhydrostatic primitive equation models during the 2004-08 typhoon seasons in the western North Pacific basin show some noticeable improvements in the forecasts of typhoon tracks in terms of the forecast errors and track smoothness with this multivariate approach. The advantages of the multivariate optimization approach are its portability and simplicity, which could make it easily adaptable to any operational typhoon forecast center that synthesizes typhoon track forecast products from different sources. |
| Description: | TNS06896 ; WEATHER AND FORECASTING Volume: 27 Issue: 2 Pages: 451-461 Published: APR 2012 |
| URI: | http://repository.vnu.edu.vn/handle/VNU_123/27327 |
| ISSN: | ISSN: 0882-8156 |
| Appears in Collections: | Bài báo của ĐHQGHN trong Web of Science |
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